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CPI in June expected to increase slightly

According to the Price Management Department, Ministry of Finance, world commodity prices were little changed, plus the increasing domestic demand due to the hot sun, the adjustment lags of increased fuel prices would be 20/5 Tuesday determinants action to put pressure on market prices.
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Commenting on FOREX market price of the month 6/2015, the Price Management Department, said there will be some impact factor putting pressure on prices in May 6. Specifically, the forecast price of some goods chemical raw materials on world markets likely to fluctuate slightly, along with the impact of rising rates (from 05/07/2015) can act to put pressure on the domestic price level, especially price imported goods.

Domestic, continued hot weather, demand for certain consumer goods (clothing, footwear, beverages and housewares serve summer, the demand for electricity, water and cleaning needs entertainment, tourism …) is likely to increase, pressuring prices. Besides the increase in petrol prices 05.20.2015 day also affects price index (CPI) of June due to delays in the CPI cycle.

In return, the local market was supported by factors such as the balance of supply – and demand for goods plentiful, especially foodstuffs, food. In particular, prices are likely to trend down slightly due to competitive export to countries like Thailand, India … fierce while rice inventory is still high. Plus the ministries, branches and localities to continue to strengthen management, stabilize market prices will contribute to stabilizing the price level in month 6/2015.

Earlier, the analysis of the factors that impact 5/2015 CPI rose 0.16%, the highest since early 2015. So far, authorities have said the price for 3 reasons.

First, as the weather turns hot season, along with the month long holiday occasion th death anniversary of Hung Vuong 10/3, 30 / 4-1 / 5, needs some goods and services (beverages tobacco, clothing and footwear, household appliances and equipment, electricity, clean water, tourism, public transport services …) rose slightly, putting pressure on commodities prices goods and services.

Second, in May 5/2015, due to the price of petroleum products in the world, increased gas prices two times: Date 05/05/2015 (up 1,950 VND / liter) and dated 20.5.2015 ( increased by VND1,200 / liter); Oil prices rose on 5/21/2015 adjustment (diesel rose by VND500 / liter). In particular, to increase the price of petrol at the beginning of the month 5/2015 has impacted mainly on the increase of group 5/2015 CPI Communications (up 1.02%).

In addition, also affected by the correction of the average electricity price from the date 16.03.2015 and increased power consumption due to hot weather, electricity prices in the period 5/2015 CPI increase over the previous month, the CPI increased overall contribution of around 0.11% month 5/2015.

The remaining months of 2015, the authorities forecast prices, to continue operating under the market price of some goods and services the State management of prices as electricity, health services, teachers … Exercise can increase the impact of consumer price index for the whole year.

Earlier according to calculations by the General Statistics Office, the adjustment of electricity prices rise on 16.03.2015 will contribute to the general growth of the CPI in 2015 is about 0.46%. At the same time, the price adjustment of health services in 2015 under the roadmap will also increase the impact on the CPI in 2015.

The statistics agency said that with the structural adjustment plan 3 element direct costs and expenses paid allowances in the price of medical services will have an impact on the 2015 CPI increased by 0.74% more, if structural extra wage costs will impact annual CPI increase with greater levels.

However, under the price control authority, the domestic market will be supported by inflationary pressures from energy prices on the world market is not large. International organizations such as EIA, Reuters, the World Bank forecasts were revised down on average WTI oil price in 2015, fluctuating around 50.3 to 52.15 USD / barrel. In addition, the US dollar strengthened against the major currencies as well as oil prices, primarily in USD, down.

As reported by the Government before the National Assembly at 9 XIII, the macroeconomic situation last 6 months of 2015 continued to be stable, aggregate demand in the economy recovery and the supply of goods to maintain growth good growth; Credit growth positive (15% -17% predicted) showed manufacturing business private sector positive changes.

Therefore forecasts, if 7 months last year fluctuations do not occur irregularly (floods and storms, epidemics …), the latest consumer price index in 2015 compared to December 12/2014 would be around 3.0% – 3.5%. /.


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