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Beam latest assessment of the world coffee market
27/02/2014

World coffee market fluctuated sharply recently. Prices have doubled in the past year and continues to fluctuate sharply rising trend in recent days. The reason is Where? It is the “fever” real or “fever” virtual? Vinanet introduce following the latest review of the business research firm and the world’s leading coffee.

 

Nespresso: Coffee prices will fall

 

Nespresso company CEO, Richard Girardot, coffee prices forecast to fall by the recent price rise situation is due to speculation.

In an interview with Bloomberg dated 18/3 in Lausanne, Switzerland, Mr Girardot said: “We expect prices to fall, but by how much, no one can say.”

 

ILLYCAFFE: Coffee is priced 50% higher than the actual

 

ILLYCAFFE CEO of SpA, Andrea Illy, noted that coffee in New York has been priced 50% higher than the actual by speculators inflate futures prices up, contributing to “bubble ball “on global commodity markets. Arabica prices have increased more than 2 times in the past year.

 

In an interview in Sao Paulo, said he Illy coffee prices will “more reasonable” if it is around 1.80 to 2.20 USD / lb. According to him, the price could drop to $ 1.50 / lb while production increased drag on the global reserves increased.

 

Coffee prices in New Keyboard Instrument futures rose to $ 2.9665 / lb on 9/3, the highest ever level since May 5/1997, and increased more than 2 times in the past year on concern demand demand will exceed supply on the world market, while the weather in Latin America there are many uncertainties. Farmers in Brazil and many other countries can produce will boost efforts to enlist output at high prices.

 

Mr. Illy said that “we are in the period of” bubble “with all the goods, but the bubble inevitably burst.”

 

He predicts global coffee output may rise 10% in next season, was encouraged by the high price of this service. Meanwhile, consumer demand can be reduced by about 1% this year after falling 1.5% in 2010 due to high prices.

 

He added that ILLYCAFFE can transfer part of the cost increase to consumers this year, after rising 10% in the past year. The price increase is likely to begin from June, admiration or August 7, when the company purchased coffee from producers. Brazil Coffee accounts for half of total company blended.

 

According to him, Brazil’s output this year will reach about 45 to 47 million bags, highs in low productivity cycles, compared to a record 55 million bags last year.

 

Ministry of Agriculture forecasts Brazil’s coffee output this year they will be around 41.9 to 44.7 million bags compared to 48.1 million bags last year. A 60 kg bag equivalent.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices in May rose 5.05 cents, or 1.9% at the close of trading last week, closed at $ 2.7205 / lb in New York, while robusta same term increase of 117 USD or 4.7% to $ 2,604 / ton in London, sua reaching a record high of $ 2,615 is 13/3/2008 / ton.

 

Starbucks: Speculation increases in coffee prices and reduced demand

 

Coffee prices have soared in recent years by speculation, and it threatens to reduce demand. It is said Howard Schultz, Starbucks Corp. chairman. (SBUX) – the largest coffee company in the world.

 

In the coffee industry conference in New Orleans, Mr. Schultz said that speculation has caused prices profiteering coffee on the world market increased “artificially”, and in the long run, “I do not think the consumer will respond positively to the price increase. ”

 

Coffee futures prices on the New York market has doubled in the past year.

 

Licht: Brazilian coffee output may be reduced due to weather and pests

 

Coffee production in Brazil – the country’s largest coffee producer in the world, can be reduced by dry weather in February last term affects on the body again, and fungal disease spread wide. It is acknowledged by the research firm FO German Licht.

 

Brazil will harvest from May to coffee. Although to date no statistics on losses due to drought and pests, agronomists agreed that would not yield very satisfactory. However, they also said that is not affected by pests to alarming levels.

 

Marco Antonio dos Santos, forecaster Somar Meteorologia weather of Sao Paulo said the drought could make this year’s output fell more than 30% forecast in January.

 

On 4/1, Somar predicted that the Brazilian coffee growers can harvest 33.7 million bags of coffee in 2011, down from 48.1 million bags last year.

 

ICO: Coffee prices have not moved out to consumers

 

According to Dow Jones quoted the president the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Arabica prices rise still not completely transferred to the consumers.

 

Chairman Jose Sette said if prices move entirely to the consumer “will affect demand, especially in the more developed markets such as North America and Western Europe”.

 

Kraft Foods Inc.. recently said it has increased prices of its coffee brands Maxwell House and Yuban (sold in the U.S. market) add the equivalent of 70 U.S. cents / lb, is 4 times increase in the past year due to the price of coffee material increases.

 

Last month, J.M. Smucker Co. also gained most of their coffee products – mainly brands Folgers and Dunkin ‘Donuts in the U.S. an average of 10%.

 

Arabica prices index linked continent has nearly doubled in the past 6 months, due to erratic weather in consecutive years to reduce output in major producing countries such as Colombia. Reference price contracts “C” futures recently traded in May to $ 2.7540 / lb.

 

Starbucks Corp. vice president., Dub Hay, recently told reporters Dow Jones said the company will conduct product prices in the near future.

 

At a recent conference in New Orleans, the CEO of the company, Howard Schultz, said coffee prices is due to speculation, and prices are only “pseudo”, and it will have a negative impact to consumption.

 

Sette But he countered that opinion and that supply factors – support for substantive price increase, because the supply is clearly not enough to meet demand.

 

Increased demand in the developing countries, especially in producing countries is leading Brazil – countries that can replace the U.S. as the No. 1 consumer market – is expected to push global coffee consumption rose 132.5 million bags, compared with 131.2 million bags in 2009, bringing the average annual consumption growth over the past decade to 2.3%.

 

Mr. Sette said that prices could rise further pressure in the near future. “This is just the first phase of the bull”, and “When prices fall, it will not return to the same level as the 2000 and 2005″.

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